Columbia|SIPA – ELECTRIC VEHICLE PENETRATION AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL OIL DEMAND: A SURVEY OF 2019 FORECAST TRENDS

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Columbia University has released a detailed survey on the global electric vehicle fleet and its predictions for the coming years in terms of EV fleet growth and oil demand.

Some of the key findings are:

  • The Electric Vehicle share of the global passenger vehicle fleet is not projected to be very large (i.e. over twenty percent) before 2030 given the long lead time in turning over the global automobile fleet.

 

  • Battery cost—In both this and last year’s survey, the median year for battery pack costs reaching $100/kWh (from an estimated $175–$200/kWh today) to become competitive with the internal combustion engine without government subsidy is 2025. 

 

  • Passenger vehicle oil demand—Through 2025, passenger vehicle oil demand is generally projected to be either flat or growing slightly  Beyond 2025, most of the forecasts show passenger vehicle oil demand declining based on the demographics and economic forecast used.

 

  • Total oil demand—Even if passenger vehicle oil demand declined by 2040, it doesn’t necessarily mean that total oil demand will decline because of the growth expected in sectors that are more challenging to electrify or find substitutes (e.g., truck, air, marine, petrochemicals).

 

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